2008 M&G Election Pool

Well its that time again. Two weeks from today all Canadians (or at least 65%… I hope?) will partake, in what has become a Canadian bi-annual tradition, yet another Federal Election.With the impending election Manatee and Gnomes will keep its tradition going with the latest installment of the M&G Election Pool.

The rules are simple: each member of Manatee and Gnomes will submit their prediction for the party seat counts by the end of today (Sept 30th) and, come election day, the member with the most correct distributions will be declared the winner. Good luck Guys!

~O’Smiley

2008 Election Predictions

   Manatee   Gnomes   O’Smiley 
Conservative 148 141 147
Liberal 76 81 77
NDP 47 46 37
Bloc 35 37 44
Green 0 0 0
Independent 2 3 3
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4 Comments

  1. Gnomes said,

    Tuesday, 30 September 2008 at 6:55 pm

    Because it’s such a unique way of predicted results, and because copying its predictions takes no effort, I have based my prediction on UBC’s Election Stock Market current standing.

    As always, I hope the voter turnout will set a new low record, which helps raise awareness that FPTP is fundamentally flawed and unrepresentative. Low voter turnouts make it easier to debunk those Pollyannas who stress voting as a meaningful democratic exercise, when in actual fact, the vote is a lie.

  2. O'Smiley said,

    Wednesday, 1 October 2008 at 3:06 pm

    As a side note to your comment on the flaws of FPTP Gnomes; in response to a work collegues comment that proportional representation would never yield a majority government (to which my first response was “Good!”), I did a little research into Canadian election history and was somewhat surprised to see that, although rare, there were quite a few instances in which the governing party did win more than 50% of the popular vote. The last of these, to my surprise, was the Brian Mulroney’s PC party which took 50.03% of the popular vote in 1984.

  3. O'Smiley said,

    Thursday, 2 October 2008 at 11:34 am

    I hope the outcome comes to: CPC 145, LPC 77, NDP 43, BQ 39, Green 1, Other 3. It’s the most realistic outcome I could come up with that will lead to a 3 way tie.

  4. Gnomes said,

    Monday, 13 October 2008 at 9:49 am

    The final predictions are in. The Election Prediction Project and democraticSpace are foreseeing what could be the greatest status quo election of all time, while the UBC Stock Market traders seem to feel that Conservative and NDP fortunes will be a little more positive tomorrow.

    As all projections have the Conservatives well below our lowest prediction of 141 and the Liberals well above our highest prediction of 81, it will be the NDP and Bloc vote that likely determines it. O’Smiley’s numbers look the best there, but will it be enough?


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