Ed who?

Well, I’ll be buying that PC membership now. If Morton receives an endorsement from Oberg — or even Norris — I’ll be very nervous indeed.

The one thing that impressed me, though, was Ed Stelmach’s strong showing. With Hancock’s support, he might even be a contender. If he could get Oberg and Norris’ support as well, and if those three could actually deliver two thirds of their voters, Stelmach would be in a position to knock Morton off in the first round of the second ballot. Morton’s supporters would almost certainly go overwhelmingly to Stelmach over Dinning, giving him the votes needed to win.

It’s a longshot with two big ifs, but I wouldn’t be surprised. This race has been described as being driven both anybody-but-Dinning and anybody-but-Morton, and that anybody is now Steady Eddie Stelmach.

~Gnomes

Advertisements

3 Comments

  1. Manatee said,

    Sunday, 26 November 2006 at 5:10 pm

    I think it is a good thing for anti-Morton sympathizers that Stelmach finished third. Despite being considered ‘everyone’s second choice’ much of his support is rural, and he has likely taken votes away form Morton. In fact, if no Edmonton area candidate had made the final three, I’m not so sure Stelmach would publicly or privately endorse Dinning.
    Two things lead me to believe an Eddie up the middle campaign will not succeed. He lacks many of the intangibles voters (for better or worse) appreciate in politicians and because of this may leak support to the two front runners now that the race has entered the final stage. It was ok to support the nice guy for a while, but now things are serious. Also, it seems to me that voters are far more likely to follow their man in a delegated convention than in the situation we have here. Delivering 2/3 support will be difficult for any failed candidate. The situation you’ve described is indeed a longshot.
    I kind of hope you are right though. You’ve heard that quiet rumbling that progressives should be buying memberships to support Morton, thinking being that the Alberta Liberals could whip him in a general election? Well, that seems like taking quite a risk. Less of a risk, however, might be supporting Stage-frightened Stelmach, the worst performer I have ever seen at a candidates forum in my many years of attending candidates forums.
    Barring any unforseen changes in the leadership landscape, I will be buying a membership and voting for Dinning.

  2. Gnomes said,

    Sunday, 26 November 2006 at 6:40 pm

    Stelmach has Oberg’s support, the one I think was most likely to go to Morton. I’d say Stelmach’s odds are up to 6:1 against.

    If Norris supports Stelmach as well, I think that would have some impact, all three respectable finishers agreeing on one candidate would lend a strong air of legitimacy that could overcome the stigma of being merely a kingmaker. With the excellent preferential format of the third ballot, there is no downside to people marking Stelmach as their first choice, even without a hope that he would win. And he’s got to be absolutely overwhelming as Morton and Dinning supporters’ second choice.

  3. Manatee said,

    Sunday, 26 November 2006 at 10:50 pm

    Oberg is the candidate who can probably deliver the largest percentage of his support, so this is great news for us anti morton people outside of the party.

    “And he’s got to be absolutely overwhelming as Morton and Dinning supporters’ second choice.”

    Very true. Things look…better than they might have.


Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: