Upsets abound

Looking over some seat projections, it looks like we may be in for some big-name losses on Jan. 23. This one, in particular, has McLellan, Stronach, Ianno, Valeri, and Pettigrew all losing their seats. (Two of those I would greatly enjoy, while three of them would be somewhat disappointing). Perhaps more surpassing, it would have O’Smiley walk away with the M&G seat projection pool with 11 correct picks, 3 more than Patsy Stone’s projected second place finish.

The ridings chosen for the pool generally had some significant local factors in play, so projections may not be very reliable for these seats. There’s no doubt that O’Smiley is the favourite going into the final weekend of the campaign though. Should Manatee have focussed his campaign more against Dexter? Did Gnomes’ attack ads hurt him more than they helped? Only time, or perhaps a reposed Rex Murphy, will tell.

~ Gnomes

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4 Comments

  1. Manatee said,

    Thursday, 19 January 2006 at 4:54 pm

    I’m just glad that O’Smiley didn’t take me up on my wager that the CPC wouldn’t win a single seat in Quebec. I think this website has them at avout 6 in Quebec, which still seems high.

    I prefer the other election prediction site. I’m sure most of those seats are still lightning bolts.

  2. O'Smiley said,

    Thursday, 19 January 2006 at 5:53 pm

    Lets not forget that seat projections are as good as polls. How many times has McLellan been projected to loose her seat?

    With that said, I still wouldn’t mind winning the pool if only for bragging rights. Is there a prize for winning?

  3. Gnomes said,

    Thursday, 19 January 2006 at 6:50 pm

    ElectionPrediction.org does have a lot of our seats as too close to call; those that do have a prediction agree with democraticspace.com, except they predict a win for Nystrom in Regina Qu’Appelle.

  4. Gnomes said,

    Sunday, 22 January 2006 at 7:59 pm

    A couple of seats which I thought were perhaps too safe to make interesting look like they will be closer races than expected; Keith Martin in Esquimalt has a strong NDP contender, and Ignatieff hasn’t been faring too well either.


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